My Research Process

Over time, I’ve realized my best investments have come not from genius insight but from real clarity. And that clarity comes from a simple but deliberate research process, one that’s always evolving, but built on a few core principles.

I don’t use a checklist. I don’t have a rigid system. But here’s roughly how I go about it:

1. Find the puzzle

I don’t start with screeners. I start with curiosity. Maybe a smart investor owns it. Maybe the numbers look too good. That’s how I found $BBW and $NGVC, simple curiosity and a love for studying businesses, (even bad ones).

I once read every $GM annual report going back years. I’d never own it, but I was fascinated. I don’t always invest, sometimes I just want to understand.

2. Understand the business

Before I even look at numbers, I want to understand the engine. How does this company actually make money? What do its customers care about? Who are the competitors and what do they hate about competing with this business?

I try to answer these in plain English. If I can’t explain the core engine in a few sentences, I probably don’t understand it well enough to own it.

3. Build the map

Then I dig. This part is messy and nonlinear. Perhaps part and part science.

I read 10Ks, 8Ks, transcripts, and investor decks.

I search for independent views (especially those I disagree with ).

I read at least the last 3–5 years of financials, not just recent quarters.

I compare to peers to understand margins, growth, capital allocation, etc.

What I’m building isn’t just a model. It’s a mental map of how this business behaves in different environments(ie bull markets, recessions, tech cycles, regulation changes, etc).

4. Focus on the few things that matter

Every company has noise. I try to isolate the key variable. For $NFLX, it was member retention. For $TSLA, maybe it’s cost per mile. For $NGVC, it was same store sales per square foot.

I keep asking: what has to be true for this to work? And what breaks the thesis?

I want my thesis to be falsifiable. If it’s just “I like the founder and the stock’s down,” that’s not a thesis, it’s hope.

5. Think in ranges, not targets

I don’t do elaborate DCFs. Instead, I use simple math:

If revenue grows 15% and margins hit X, what’s EBITDA in 3 years? What kind of multiple is reasonable? What’s the implied return?

I want 2–3 scenarios: base, upside, downside, and I write them out. This forces me to think in probabilities.

6. Write about it

The final step is the most important: writing.

My posts aren’t just for sharing, they’re for sharpening. If I can’t write a short piece explaining why I’m interested, I don’t really understand the business and the investment thesis. And writing publicly invites feedback, which has killed more bad ideas than any model ever could.

Just the other day someone reached out and asked if I’d read their 20 page writeup on a company. And to be honest, it was excellent detailed, thoughtful, well written. I really enjoyed reading it.

But here’s the truth: if you can’t make a compelling case for the investment on the back of a napkin, in a few sentences, it’s probably not worth buying. Most great investments are love at first sight. They make you sit up straight and howl at the moon.

If you’ve given it a look and instead you find yourself counting pi to the 28th digit, the investment probably isn’t for you. Or at least, it’s not for me (hehe).

Because the best ones? You feel them in your gut before you prove them in your spreadsheet.

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